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1. 天津师范大学 城市与环境科学学院,天津300387
2. 清华大学 环境科学与工程系,北京,100084
Published:2008
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JING Ping, JIA Haifeng, XU Bixia. Trend Forecasting and Forewarning Method for Urban Sustainable Development[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2008, 30(2): 116-120.
DOI:
JING Ping, JIA Haifeng, XU Bixia. Trend Forecasting and Forewarning Method for Urban Sustainable Development[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2008, 30(2): 116-120. DOI: 10.11835/j.issn.1674-4764.2008.02.049.
可持续发展的指标体系和评价方法已出现了大量的研究成果,而发展趋势预测和预警分析则相对薄弱。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,在小样本的数据预测中,具有独特的优势,可以作为可持续发展指标变化趋势的预测模型。模糊物元预警方法,可在已有现状统计数据和灰色预测数据的基础上,依据预警指标权重、预警标准,对区域可持续发展状况进行预警分析。实例以天津为例,根据选择的15个评价指标,运用层次分析法进行权重计算,结合国内外城市发展状况建立预警标准,采用模糊物元预警方法对该市的可持续发展进行预警分析。
The index system and assessment methods for urban sustainable development are very popularly used
but the development trend prediction and forewarning analysis are rarely done. The GM(1
1) model is a specific one in the process of forecasting with littl
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