FAN Wenliang, CHEN Zhaohui, LI Zhengliang, et al. Joint Probabilistic Structure of Rainfall in Analysis of Landslides Probability[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2012, 34(5): 57-63.
DOI:
FAN Wenliang, CHEN Zhaohui, LI Zhengliang, et al. Joint Probabilistic Structure of Rainfall in Analysis of Landslides Probability[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2012, 34(5): 57-63. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-4764.2012.05.009.
Joint Probabilistic Structure of Rainfall in Analysis of Landslides Probability
Rainfall is the main input for probabilistic analysis and prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide. The joint probabilistic structure of daily rainfall (DR) and cumulative rainfall (CR)
which are dominant parameters of rainfall related on landslide in Chongqing region
was analyzed. Following the traditional technology
daily rainfall was translated into discrete variable by rainfall grade and cumulative rainfall became continuous variable if records with very small cumulative rainfall were ignored. Then joint probabilistic model of discrete variable and continuous one was derived
and transiting solution of conditional density function was put forward
together with its approximation via a family of Dirac δ sequences. Naturally
the proposed method was used to analyze conditional density function of cumulative rainfall in Chongqing region
and the numerical results were verified by comparison. However
most of the conditional density functions were irregular and not modeled by simple probability density function
thus the finite mixture distribution was introduced
which is of uncomplicated format and relatively high precision. At last
the joint probabilistic model of daily rainfall and cumulative rainfall was built up by combining frequency function of grade of daily rainfall with conditional density model of cumulative rainfall.