强震区沟谷型泥石流峰值流量预测研究及应用

张亮亮; 徐林荣; 李永威; 苏娜; 晏子旋; 丁奎

doi:10.11835/j.issn.2096-6717.2022.009

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强震区沟谷型泥石流峰值流量预测研究及应用

土木工程 | 更新时间：2023-03-07

- 强震区沟谷型泥石流峰值流量预测研究及应用
- Prediction of the gully debris flow peak discharge prediction in strong earthquake area
- 土木与环境工程学报 2023年45卷第2期页码：81-88
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中南大学，土木工程学院，长沙 410075
  2.中南大学，高速铁路建造技术国家工程实验室，长沙 410075
- 作者简介：
  
  张亮亮（1996- ），男，主要从事泥石流灾害、路基病害研究，E-mail: 194812263@csu.edu.cn。
  徐林荣（通信作者），男，教授，博士生导师，E-mail: lrxu@csu.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(2018YFC1505403;2017YFB1201204;42172322)
- DOI：10.11835/j.issn.2096-6717.2022.009
  中图分类号： P642.23
- 收稿：2021-11-18，
  
  纸质出版：2023-04-25
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
张亮亮, 徐林荣, 李永威, 等. 强震区沟谷型泥石流峰值流量预测研究及应用[J]. 土木与环境工程学报, 2023,45(2):81-88.

ZHANG Liangliang, XU Linrong, LI Yongwei, et al. Prediction of the gully debris flow peak discharge prediction in strong earthquake area[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2023, 45(2): 81-88.
张亮亮, 徐林荣, 李永威, 等. 强震区沟谷型泥石流峰值流量预测研究及应用[J]. 土木与环境工程学报, 2023,45(2):81-88. DOI： 10.11835/j.issn.2096-6717.2022.009.

ZHANG Liangliang, XU Linrong, LI Yongwei, et al. Prediction of the gully debris flow peak discharge prediction in strong earthquake area[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2023, 45(2): 81-88. DOI： 10.11835/j.issn.2096-6717.2022.009.

摘要

强震区次生泥石流灾害演化规律与发展趋势受地震“后效应”影响显著，与震前相比，其峰值流量增长数倍，泥石流规模增大显著，对震区沟谷型泥石流针对性防治设计提出新挑战。基于四川汶川强震区泥石流案例，采用因子回归分析方法研究流域特征参数与峰值流量的内在关系，建立泥石流峰值流量多元预测模型。结果表明：预测模型解决了原始变量共线性导致的信息叠加问题，模型拟合优度

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，预测精度显著提升；采用预测模型对研究区32条泥石流沟的峰值流量阈值进行预测，得出强震区泥石流动力特性分布规律与泥石流规模演化特征，在此基础上定义了震区“特大型高位远程型泥石流”的特征参数。

Abstract

The evolution pattern and development trend of secondary debris flow in the strong earthquake area were significantly affected by the “post-effect” of the earthquake. The peak discharge had increased several times compared with that before earthquake

and the scale of the debris flow had increased obviously. According to the norms

the new challenge to the targeted design of prevention and control of the gully debris flow in seismic area is being put forward. Therefore

based on the case of debris flow in Wenchuan earthquake

the factorial regression analysis was used to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the basic characteristic parameters and the peak discharge in this paper

and a multivariate prediction model was established. The problem of information superposition caused by the collinearity of the original variables was solved

with goodness of fitting

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3.04800010

and the prediction accuracy was improved significantly; at last

the proposed model was used to predict the peak discharge thresholds of 32 debris flows in the study area

and the distribution law of dynamic characteristics and the scale evolution characteristics of debris flow were analyzed in strong earthquake area. Based on results above

the characteristic parameters of “super-large-scale high-level long-distance debris flow” was defined.

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references

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